UFC 191 KM/PickEm

 

By Chris V ‘Kountermove King’

 

UFC 191 is knocking at the front door.  We are up for some very entertaining fights tomorrow night!  Below you will find my preview, predictions, & picks.  Unfortunately for you I cannot share my Top Secret Research method but I will share my results.  Enjoy!

 

Demetrious Johnson $5800  vs John Dodson $4800

  1. Opening odds via Best Fight Odds:  Johnson -400 Dodson +310
  2. Current odds via Best Fight Odds: Johnson -600 Dodson +450
  3. “Top Secret Research” chance of getting the ‘W’: D Johnson 83% vs J Dodson 18%

My Pick: D Johnson by Decision.  

Would I put him on my KM team?  Yes, but you have to find a LOWWW price fighter who will fight to at least a decision to counter balance his price.  

 

Andre Arlovski $5000 vs Frank Mir $4600

  1. Opening odds via Best Fight Odds: Arlovski -180 Mir +140
  2. Current odds via Best Fight Odds: Arlovski -140 Mir +130
  3. “Top Secret Research” chance of getting the ‘W’: A Arlovski 70% vs F Mir 31%

 

My Pick: A Arlovski by TKO

Would I put him on my KM team?  Slim chance.  In all reality, both Mir & Arlovski have a GOOD chance of finishing this fight with one punch.  To much risk for the price tag.

 

Anthony Johnson $5600 vs Jimi Manuwa $4000

  1. Opening odds via Best Fight Odds: Johnson -600 Manuwa +400
  2. Current odds via Best Fight Odds: Johnson -605 Manuwa +505
  3. “Top Secret Research” chance of getting the ‘W’: A Johnson 93% vs J Manuwa 8%

My Pick: A Johnson by TKO

Would I put him on my KM team?  Yes.  Johnson looked great at the weigh ins.  Other than his less than spectacular fight with Cormier, Rumble has been on a terror!  I don’t see anything changing at 191.

 

Corey Anderson $4700 vs Jan Blachowicz $4900

  1. Opening odds via Best Fight Odds: Anderson +125 Blachowicz -165
  2. Current odds via Best Fight Odds: Anderson +125 Blachowicz -135
  3. “Top Secret Research” chance of getting the ‘W’: C Anderson 36% vs J Blachowicz 65%

My Pick: J Blachowicz by Decision

Would I put him on my KM team?  Yes, but only as a filler.  My research does not show that one would get their monies worth out of either fighter.  If this fight goes to decision, expect to see 30-40 points.  

 

Alex Chambers $3800 vs. Paige VanZant $5800

  1. Opening odds via Best Fight Odds: Chambers +600 VanZant -1200
  2. Current odds via Best Fight Odds: Chambers +1050 VanZant -1300
  3. “Top Secret Research” chance of getting the ‘W’: A Chambers 6% vs PVZ 94%

My Pick: PVZ by TKO

Would I put her on my KM team?  Yes, again you have to find a LOWWW price fighter who will fight to at least a decision to counter balance this price.  

 

Paul Felder $5200 vs. Ross Pearson $4400

  1. Opening odds via Best Fight Odds: Felder -245 Pearson +175
  2. Current odds via Best Fight Odds: Felder -450 Pearson +400
  3. “Top Secret Research” chance of getting the ‘W’: P Felder 83% vs R Pearson 18%

My Pick: P Felder by KO

Would I put him on my KM team? Yes, Paul has been a monster since he stepped up to the UFC.  Conversely, Pearson has really been on a downward spiral.  At $5000 I feel Felder will be worth every penny!

 

John Lineker $4800 vs. Francisco Rivera $4800

  1. Opening odds via Best Fight Odds: Lineker -120 Rivera -120
  2. Current odds via Best Fight Odds: Lineker -140 Rivera +120
  3. “Top Secret Research” chance of getting the ‘W’: J Lineker 57% vs F Rivera 44%

My Pick: J Lineker by Decision

Would I put him on my KM team?  Maybe.  This is one of those fights to close to call.  My gut says these two will sling punches for 15 mins.  For the price, Lineker is worth taking a chance on.  Even a close decision could land you 55+ points.

 

Jessica Andrade $4700 vs. Raquel Pennington $4200

  1. Opening odds via Best Fight Odds: Andrade -260 Pennington +180
  2. Current odds via Best Fight Odds: Andrade -205 Pennington +188
  3. “Top Secret Research” chance of getting the ‘W’: J Andrade 72% vs R Pennington 29%

My Pick: J Andrade by Decision

Would I put her on my KM team?  Probably not.  Although she is a cheap pick, this is one of those fights that doesn’t result in many points.  That said, R Pennington is SUPER cheap at $4200.  She probably won’t bring the W but she could be a decent counter part to an expense draft like PVZ or Mighty Mouse.  It should be noted that Pennington seemed to struggle to make weight.  Could be a sign of a bad camp or bad weight cut.

 

Clay Collard $4800 Thiago Trator $4700

  1. Opening odds via Best Fight Odds: Collard -185 Trator +145
  2. Current odds via Best Fight Odds: Collard -135 Trator +115
  3. “Top Secret Research” chance of getting the ‘W’: C Collard 76% vs T Trator 25%

My Pick: C Collard by Decision

Would I put him on my KM team?  Nope.  Collard was one of three that showed doubt about making weight.  This generally is a good indication something went wrong during camp.  Although I pick him to win, I don’t trust him to win.

 

Joe Riggs $4600 vs Ron Stallings $5000

  1. Opening odds via Best Fight Odds: Riggs +100 Stallings -140
  2. Current odds via Best Fight Odds: Riggs +150 Stallings -160
  3. “Top Secret Research” chance of getting the ‘W’: J Riggs 38% vs R Stallings 64%

My Pick: R Stallings by KO

Would I put him on my KM team?  YES!  Riggs is getting old in the fight game.  Not only that, he missed weight completely.  According to my research Riggs is a underdog, Vegas odds he is a underdog, & he was off weight and he knew it.  Recipe for disaster.  Stallings by ass whoopin.

 

Nazareno Malegarie $5200  vs. Joaquim Silva $4400

  1. Opening odds via Best Fight Odds: Malegarie -145 Silva +105
  2. Current odds via Best Fight Odds: Malegarie -135 Silva +125
  3. “Top Secret Research” chance of getting the ‘W’: N Malegarie 55% vs J Silva 46%

My Pick: N Malegarie by Decision

Would I put him on my KM team? No.  For the price versus the risk, I don’t see any value.  Conversely, J Silva at $4400 with a 46% chance of getting the ‘W’, I do see potential here.  Just as previously stated, this fighter would make a good counter part to an expensive pick like D Johnson or A Johnson.

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